In einem meiner früheren Blogs habe ich die Probleme bei der Analyse von Jahresabschlüssen von Immobilienunternehmen beschrieben. Meine zentrale Aussage war, dass eine rein quantitative ergebnisbasierte Bilanzanalyse keine belastbare Aussage zum Wert des Unternehmens zulässt und cashorientierten Kennzahlen, Dividenden und qualitativen Beobachtungen der Vorzug gegeben werden sollte.
Ähnlich wie in meinem Blog zu den Baufirmen wende ich meine damals präsentierten Vorschläge nun auf die Halbjahresberichte von Österreichs börsennotierten Immobilienfonds an.
Hierfür stelle ich einige Kennzahlen der Wertentwicklung an der Börse gegenüber und interpretiere den Zusammenhang.
Ratios CA Immo AG, Source Basic Data: Vienna Stock Exchange Website
Ratios S Immo AG, Source Basic Data: Vienna Stock Exchange Website
Ratios Immofinanz AG, Source Basic Data: Vienna Stock Exchange Website
Betrachtet man die Kennzahlensets oberhalb, lassen sich folgende Aussagen treffen:
- Im Vergleich zu anderen Aktien sind ist die Schwankungsbreite von Immobilienaktien sehr gering
Den stärksten Verlust im Beobachtungszeitraum erlitt Immofinanz zwischen HJ 2019 und HJ 2020 mit rund 50%. Dies ist für Anleger sicher schmerzhaft, doch entspricht dies in etwa dem Minus des ATX. Hieraus ergibt sich, dass andere Aktien im zugegeben außergewöhnlichen Vergleichszeitraum deutlich mehr verloren haben.
- Es ist klein Zusammenhang zwischen Ergebniskennzahlen und Aktienkurs erkennbar
Betrachtet man die obigen Zahlen so bestätigt sich die Aussage, dass der Mark bei keinem der Unternehmen den Ergebnissen, weder mit noch ohne Berücksichtigung des Bewertungsergebnisses folgt.
- Dividenden sind ein (relativ) guter Indikator
Hinsichtlich Dividenden ist zu sagen, dass bei Immofinanz und S Immo die Jahre mit den höchsten Dividendenrenditen auch die besten für die Aktienkurse waren. Bei CA Immo waren die Dividendenrenditen ausgeglichener, ebenso der Aktienkurs. Wenn man also zu einer quantitativen Unternehmensbewertung gezwungen ist, erscheint mir die Anwendung eines dividend discounting model empfehlenswert.
- Ein Zusammenhang zwischen qualitativen Faktoren und Aktienkurs ist nicht erkennbar
Anders als bei den Baufirmen lässt sich kein Zusammenhang zwischen qualitativen Faktoren wie Managementwechseln oder ausgesendeter Message und Aktienkurs erkennen. Möglicherweise hängt dies aber auch schlicht mit der öffentlich ausgetragenen wechselseitigen Übernahmeschlacht an, die die Unternehmen in den vergangenen Jahren austrugen. Es wird interessant sein zu beobachten wie sich das Thema in den kommenden Jahren entwickelt.
- Eine fundamentale Entkoppelung von Buchwert und Marktwert scheint nicht möglich
Ich muss zugeben, dass mich vor allem die enge Schwankungsbreite von Buch- zu Marktwert verwundert hat. So schwankt die Kennzahl Marktwert (definiert als Marktkapitalisierung + Verbindlichkeiten) / Buchwert bei allen Titeln im Beobachtungszeitraum de facto zwischen 120% und 130%.
Zusammenfassend lassen sich drei Kernaussagen ableiten.
Erstens; sofern eine Unternehmensbewertung notwendig ist, erscheint ein dividend discounting model praktikabler als ein klassisches DCF Verfahren. Dividenden geben eine bessere Beurteilungsbasis ab als Ergebnisse.
Zweitens; sofern es rein um eine Anlageentscheidung geht, scheint die beste Strategie darin zu bestehen zu warten, bis einer der Immobilientitel am unteren Ende der Bandbreite angekommen ist und dann zu kaufen und wieder zu verkaufen, wenn er das obere Ende erreicht hat.
Drittens; die Aussagekraft der Abschlüsse von Immobilienunternehmen bleibt relativ zu den Abschlüssen in anderen Branchen sehr beschränkt.
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