Jahresabschlüsse haben den Anspruch ein getreues Bild von der Ertrags- und Vermögenslage des Unternehmens zu zeigen. Bei genauerer Betrachtung wird rasch ersichtlich, dass in der gesamten Bau- und Immobilienbranche sehr viel Gestaltungsspielraum bei der Abschlusserstellung besteht, wodurch die Aussagekraft vieler klassischer Kennzahlen zumindest kurzfristig stark eingeschränkt ist.
Bei Baufirmen besteht vor allem in zweierlei Hinsicht ein großer Spielraum, der die Analyse eines einzelnen konkreten Jahresergebnisses ohne „Insiderinformation“ fast unmöglich macht.
Zum einen besteht rein aufgrund der Bewertung der erbrachten Bauleistung eine große Unschärfe. Zum anderen sind die in der Bilanz angesetzten Claims bzw. Mehrkostenforderungen oftmals sehr groß relativ zum Ergebnis, sodass geringe Fehler in der Einschätzung der Einbringlichkeit bereits zu dramatischen Ergebnisänderungen führen würden.
Bei Immobilienentwicklern liegt der Spielraum in der Bewertung der in Entwicklung befindlichen Projekte. Eine Bewertung zu Anschaffungskosten kann hierbei genauso richtig oder falsch sein, wie eine Bewertung auf Basis eines Gutachtens, indem nahezu jede Änderung der Annahmen zu riesigen Unterschieden in der Bewertung führt. Bei Beauftragung zweier Gutachten zum selben Projekt sind 40% Bewertungsdifferenz keine Unmöglichkeit.
Bei Immobilienfonds hat man einerseits die Vermischung von Vermietung / Verkauf, die eine Analyse erschwert. Hinzu kommt abermals das Thema der Bewertung der Immobilien, welches ganz maßgeblich auf wichtige Kennzahlen wie das Eigenkapital Einfluss nimmt.
Was kann man als Investor nun tun, um die Ergebnisse bestmöglich zu interpretieren?
Zum ersten, helfen natürlich Langzeitvergleiche, da Baustellen irgendwann fertig und Immobilien irgendwann verkauft werden und zu diesem Zeitpunkt die Wahrheit zumindest für die „Alt-Projekte“ ans Licht kommt. Vorsicht ist m.E. geboten, wenn Unternehmen bei Umsatz bzw. Bilanzsumme permanent wachsen, aber Ergebnis- bzw Cashentwicklung nicht Schritt halten. Es gibt sicher auch andere Erklärungsgründe, doch könnte dies ein Hinweis sein, dass optimistische Neubewertungen schlechte Ergebnisse bei Altprojekten überkompensieren.
Zum zweiten ist eine qualitative Analyse selten falsch. Kompetente Manager, die ein Unternehmen über viele Jahre führen, sind tendenziell ein gutes Zeichen; wechselt ein Unternehmen sein Managementteam zu rasch und restrukturiert es sich jedes zweite oder dritte Jahr um, so ist dies zumeist kein gutes Zeichen.
Selbstverständlich ersetzt dies keine quantitative Analyse. Hierbei empfiehlt es sich verstärkt auf Kenngrößen zu fokussieren, die keinen Einschätzungen unterliegen. Hierzu zählen insbesondere Cash Flows und Dividenden bzw. Ausschüttungen/Entnahmen.
Ist bei einer Baufirma ein konstantes Wachstum der Dividenden bzw. Entnahmen sowie des Bestandes an liquiden Mitteln gegeben, so macht das Unternehmen offensichtlich vieles richtig und die Wertermittlung unter Anwendung eines dividend discounting modell sollte zu realistischen Ergebnissen führen.
Auch bei Immobilienentwicklern gilt, dass die Cashposition unbestechlich ist. Blöderweise können große Projekte sehr lange dauern und wirken sich erst im Exit Jahr cashmäßig aus.
Bei Fließbandentwicklern, die jedes Jahr eine große Anzahl an Kleinprojekten abschließen kann wie bei einer Baufirma vorgegangen werden.
Bei Entwicklern mit wenigen Großprojekten empfehle ich eine Bewertung Projekt für Projekt. Wichtige Eckdaten wie die Lage, die NNF in m² und die restliche Projektdauer werden zumeist angegeben. Hierauf basierend ist es möglich sich selbst eine Meinung bezüglich der nachhaltigen Mieteinnahmen und der exit yields zu bilden und letztlich den Barwert des Projektes zu rechnen.
Bei Immobilienfonds werden in den Abschlüssen noch weitere „unbestechliche“ Daten wie die Mieteinnahmen und die Erlöse aus getätigten Verkäufen angegeben. Dies ist insofern wertvoll als es hierdurch möglich ist Renditekennzahlen zu errechnen.
Meines Erachtens machen zwei Ansätze Sinn.
Zum ersten die Kalkulation der Mietrendite des aktuellen Bestandes. Hierfür ist es zunächst notwendig die Mieteinnahmen aus kürzlich verkauften Projekten rauszurechnen. Sofern die publizierten Zahlen nicht mehr hergeben, empfehle ich einen realistischen yield anzusetzen und die Mieten der verkauften Projekte derart zu prognostizieren. Durch Abzug dieser Mieten von den gesamten Mieteinnahmen im Abschluss kann unter Berücksichtigung des Verkaufszeitpunktes eine Prognose der aktuellen Mieten der Bestandsobjekte erfolgen. Diese verbleibenden Mieten setzt man in Relation zum Marktwert des eingesetzten Kapitals, also Marktkapitalisierung + Schulden. Allenfalls abziehen kann man noch den Wertansatz für Grundstücke und Entwicklungsprojekte.
Eine zweite noch einfachere Kennzahl, welche ich interessant finde, ist die Eigenkapitalrendite vor Bewertungen wiederum auf Basis des Marktwertes des EK. Hierfür nehme ich das Jahresergebnis subtrahiere das im Abschluss ausgewiesene Bewertungsergebnis und dividiere es durch die Marktkapitalisierung. Mathematisch handelt es sich bei dieser Kennzahl um den Kehrwert des um Bewertungseffekte bereinigten Kurs-/Gewinn Verhältnisses.
Beide Renditekennzahlen lassen sich mit Direktinvestments in Immobilien vergleichen, wobei die Assetklasse jener des Fonds entsprechen sollte.
Die Aussagekraft von Abschlüssen von Bau- und Immobilienunternehmen bleibt beschränkt, doch kann man sich als Investor durch einen Blick auf die cashorientierten Kennzahlen etwas helfen. Gemeinsam mit der qualitativen Analyse und unter Berücksichtigung der Entwicklung auf der Zeitschiene lässt sich ein Gefühl aufbauen, ob sich ein Investment lohnt.
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