Mein letzter Blogbeitrag für Immobilienentwickler drehte sich um den derzeit sehr schwierigen Grundstückseinkauf. Dieses Mal wechseln wir die Seite und widmen uns dem Thema Investorengespräche.
Generell waren die vergangenen Jahre gute Jahre für Verkäufer und Finanzierungssuchende, doch halte ich realistische Vorstellungen und eine gute Vorbereitung nach wie vor für das A und O beim Führen von Investorengesprächen.
Zu einer guten Vorbereitung zählen einerseits die Überlegung der wechselseitigen Ziele, anderseits die ungefähre Bestimmung der Alternativen. Dem Thema Listung der Ziele nähert man sich üblicherweise am besten mit einem Brainstormingprozess an dessen Ende zwei mögliche Ziellisten stehen; eine mit den eigenen Zielen un eine mit jenen der Investoren. Im zweiten Schritt werden dann die eigenen Ziele nach Wichtigkeit gereiht, jene der Investoren kritisch hinterfragt. Für die vermeintlich wichtigsten Investorenziele werden mögliche Lösungen erarbeitet und bepreist. Wichtig ist es hierbei tatsächlich taugliche Lösungen aus Sicht der Investoren anzubieten. So werden z.B. ein langjähriger Mietvertrag mit einem bonitätsschwachen Mieter oder eine Kaution iHv. 6 Monatsmieten einen sehr konservativen und langfristig orientierten Investor kein besonderes Sicherheitsgefühl geben.
Die Bestimmung der Alternativen ist hingegen ein eher klar strukturierter Prozess.
Die offensichtlichste Alternative für Bestandsinvestoren ist zunächst einmal nicht zu kaufen und das Geld für zukünftige Investments zu behalten. Die Rendite dieses „Investments“ beträgt im worst case den derzeit negativen Euribor, allerdings nur unter der Annahme, dass der Investor keine besseren Anlagemöglichkeiten und auch keine günstigeren Verwahrungsmöglichkeiten findet.
Demgegenüber stehen die CFs des Investors bei Tätigung der Investition.
Zu Beginn stehen die Erwerbskosten, sprich Kaufpreis und Nebenkosten. Am Ende des Investitionszeitraumes steht der Verkaufserlös, diesmal vermindert um Nebenkosten.
Während der Behaltedauer stehen einander Mieteinnahmen und lfd. Kosten gegenüber. Die wichtigsten Positionen sind:
+Mieteinnahmen bei Vermietung
+Betriebskostenerlöse bei Vermietung
-Betriebskosten
-Instandhaltungskosten
-nicht umlegbare Betriebs- bzw. Assetkosten
-Verwaltungskosten des Investors
-Steuern (auf Investorenebene)
Käme Fremdkapital zum Einsatz wären die Zinsen noch abzuziehen.
Nachfolgende Rechnung stellt die Bruttorendite mit der Nettorendite des Investors anhand eines Beispiels mit „typischen“ Annahmen gegenüber.

Tabelle: Nettorendite auf Ebene des Investors (z.B. Fond), keine Kapitalertragssteuer oder persönliche Steuer des Endinvestors berücksichtigt
Betrachtet man die Rechnung wird klar, dass die für den Investor entscheidende Nettorendite rasch sehr gering wird. Konkret führt im obigen (realistischen) Beispiel eine Bruttorendite von 3% (10*12/4.000) zu einer Nettorendite von 1,3% (4,57*12/4.224). Der Unterschied zur Alternative des Geldhortens ist also nicht mehr so groß.
Hinzukommt, dass Geld das flexibelste Wertaufbewahrungsmittel bleibt und der Investor die Chance mit diesem irgendwann in Zukunft zu besseren Konditionen zuzuschlagen bepreisen muss.
Darüber hinaus ist zu erwarten, dass professionelle Investoren tendenziell doch bessere Alternativen als Cash haben. Wie gut diese sind, lässt sich bei Fonds aus den regelmäßigen Berichten entnehmen, aus welchen sich die aktuelle Nettorendite auf Fondsebene errechnen lässt.
Stellt man diese mit der Nettorendite des angebotenen Investments gegenüber erhält man ein Gefühl, ob der Investor seine Position durch das Investment verbessert.
Sollte dies nicht der Fall sein, sind die Renditevorstellungen des Verkäufers vermutlich zu hoch.
Sollte eine Reduktion für den Verkäufer wirtschaftlich nicht darstellbar sein kann dieser die Immobilie alternativ an Private abverkaufen. Dies bedeutet in aller Regel deutlich mehr Aufwand, führt aber mitunter auch zu deutlich höheren Kaufpreisen.
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